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The Paris-based energy watchdog said that the falling costs of offshore wind would make it competitive with fossil energy within the next decade, forecasting that the global average cost of power generated by offshore wind would drop 40 per cent by 2030.
“It has the potential to be a major game-changer,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA. He compared it to the two significant power trends of the past decade: the advent of fracking in shale formations — which enabled cheap natural gas, and the explosive growth in solar.
“Looking at the future of offshore wind . . . it has the potential to join the ranks of shale [gas] and solar photovoltaics in terms of steep cost reductions,” said Mr Birol.
The landmark report by the IEA is the first time that the oil watchdog, whose research informs many governments’ energy policy, has conducted such an in-depth examination of offshore wind,It also comes at a time when a growing number of countries, including France and the UK, are working to slash greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050, a goal that will require huge investment in renewable energy as well as economic restructuring.
Although offshore wind accounts for just 0.3 per cent of global power supply today, the IEA forecasts that by 2040 it could be the single biggest source of power generation in Europe.
One reason for that growth is that offshore wind yields a higher power production and has less variable output than onshore wind and solar, which makes it more similar to a “baseload” power source.
The IEA forecasts that annual new installations of offshore wind will double over the next five years, and grow fivefold by 2030.
Today most of the world’s offshore windpower is in Europe, but recently China has seen a surge in offshore wind installations. Last year China installed more new offshore wind power than any country in the world.
Total investment in offshore wind will be around $840bn over the next two decades, based on existing government policies, the report found.But expanding the offshore wind industry will also require expensive transmission lines and as projects move further offshore these will become even more costly.
Today the transmission infrastructure accounts for around a quarter of offshore wind costs today, but that proportion is set to rise to around one-half, as turbine prices decline, and as projects move further out, according to the report.
Significant investment in power grids will also be necessary to accommodate the growth in offshore wind. “Without appropriate grid reinforcements and expansion, there is a risk of large amounts of offshore wind power going unused,” the report warned.
The report surveyed global wind conditions and sea depth. It found that offshore wind has the technical potential to provide 36,000 terawatt hours of power a year — 50 per cent more than the world’s total power consumption today.
Including floating turbines and turbines farther from shore, this figure rises substantially, and the IEA report says that offshore wind has the potential to meet the world’s electricity demand 11 times over by 2040.
Source:Financial Time
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